Impact of ontogenic changes on the dynamics of a fungal crop disease model motivated by coffee leaf rust - Département MathNum Access content directly
Journal Articles Journal of Mathematical Biology Year : 2024

Impact of ontogenic changes on the dynamics of a fungal crop disease model motivated by coffee leaf rust

Abstract

Ontogenic resistance has been described for many plant-pathogen systems. Conversely, coffee leaf rust, a major fungal disease that drastically reduces coffee production, exhibits a form of ontogenic susceptibility, with a higher infection risk for mature leaves. To take into account stage-dependent crop response to phytopathogenic fungi, we developed an SEIR-U epidemiological model, where U stands for spores, which differentiates between young and mature leaves. Based on this model, we also explored the impact of ontogenic resistance on the sporulation rate. We computed the basic reproduction number R0 , which classically determines the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. We identified forward and backward bifurcation cases. The backward bifurcation is generated by the high sporulation of young leaves compared to mature ones. In this case, when the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease can persist. These results provide useful insights on the disease dynamics and its control. In particular, ontogenic resistance may require higher control efforts to eradicate the disease.
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Thursday, August 29, 2024
Embargoed file
Thursday, August 29, 2024
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hal-04484395 , version 1 (29-02-2024)

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Clotilde Djuikem, Frédéric Grognard, Suzanne Touzeau. Impact of ontogenic changes on the dynamics of a fungal crop disease model motivated by coffee leaf rust. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2024, 88 (3), pp.30. ⟨10.1007/s00285-024-02053-4⟩. ⟨hal-04484395⟩
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