Analyzing the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in Southeast France using a process-based model
Résumé
We know that fruit production, especially in the Mediterranean, will need to adapt to climate change to ensure
the sustainability of fruit tree-based agroecosystems. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term effects
of this change on sustainability indicators. To fill this gap, we used a fruit tree model, QualiTree, to analyze the
impacts ofclimate change on the ecosystem services provided by apple orchards in south-eastern France. To do
this, a blooming model was parameterized to simulate blooming date on the basis of climate data, and QualiTree
was supplemented with a model of nitrogen processes in the tree and a soil module describing resource input
(irrigation, mineral and organic fertilization), transfer in the soil (water and nitrogen) and metabolic
transformation-immobilization (mineralization, (de)nitrification). This type of extension makes it possible to
simulate a wide array of ecosystem services, including C sequestration, nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide
emissions. The model was compared with data from an apple orchard in southeastern France. The predicted daily
mean and variability over time of fruit growth, composition and soil water content were consistent with observed
data. QualiTree was then used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services
supplied by apple orchards. For this purpose, weather variables from 2020 to 2100 were generated for three
contrasted greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and simulations were performed under two irrigation schemes (no
restriction and restricted use of water). Model outputs indicated that, on average, marketable apple yields would
increase until 2050 and then subsequently decrease. The fruit refractometric index, an indicator of fruit quality,
was projected to sharply decrease with the intensity of climate change. Ecosystem services such as C seques-
tration by the orchard will decrease with climate change severity, mainly due to a higher mineralization of soil
humus, whereas N2O emissions will increase with larger denitrification rates. Soil water availability, fertility,
drainage and leaching were predicted to depend more on the irrigation strategy than on climate change severity.
The new functions performed in QualiTree broadened its predictive capabilities and allowed for a better un-
derstanding of ecosystem service delivery in fruit orchards under varying climate conditions.
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