Formally Combining Different Lines Of Evidence In Extreme-Event Attribution - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD)
Article Dans Une Revue Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography Année : 2024

Formally Combining Different Lines Of Evidence In Extreme-Event Attribution

Friederike E. L. Otto
  • Fonction : Auteur
Clair Barnes
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sjoukje Philip
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sarah Kew
  • Fonction : Auteur
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Event attribution methods are increasingly routinely used to assess the role of climate change in individual weather events. In order to draw robust conclusions about whether changes observed in the real world can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, it is necessary to analyse trends in observations alongside those in climate models, where the factors driving changes in weather patterns are known. Here we present a quantitative statistical synthesis method, developed over 8 years of conducting rapid probabilistic event attribution studies, to combine quantitative attribution results from multi-model ensembles and other, qualitative, lines of evidence in a single framework to draw quantitative conclusions about the overarching role of human-induced climate change in individual weather events.
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insu-04803012 , version 1 (25-11-2024)

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Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al.. Formally Combining Different Lines Of Evidence In Extreme-Event Attribution. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2024, 10, pp.159-171. ⟨10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024⟩. ⟨insu-04803012⟩
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