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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2003

Real time flood forecasting with rainfall-runoff models on the Oise River basin in France

Prévision en temps réel des inondations à l'aide de modèles pluie-débits dans la rivière de l'Oise (France)

Résumé

In Europe, floods are the most damaging natural disaster in terms of cost and human lives. In France, many catastrophic flood events have occurred in the last ten years. In several cases, they showed the lack of efficient forecasting tools to provide reliable flood forecasts and warn populations with sufficient delay. Therefore the Ministries of Environment and Equipment, in collaboration with the Meteorological Services, supported initiatives to modernize the existing forecasting tools. The Oise basin (20 000 km²), an important tributary to the Seine River, is one of the catchments where catastrophic floods occured in 1993 and 1995. It receives the water of the Aisne River basin (8000 km²). Several cities are located along the river and it goes through the densely urbanized area of Paris before joining the Seine River. The basin is managed by the Entente-Oise-Aisne an organisation which is in charge of improving the management of flood risk on this catchment. In 2001, Cemagref carried out a project in collaboration with the French consultancy SAFEGE to develop and implement an operational flood-forecasting tool for the Oise and the Aisne Rivers. The objective was to use rainfall-runoff models to make short-term flood forecasts. The tool is now used by the forecast services. The study was completed in 2002 in order to apply the rainfall-runoff model downstream in the catchment for flood forecasting. The objective of this poster is to present : 1. The methodology carried out to select the modelling tools (rainfall-runoff models, updating procedures); 2. The modelling tools used in these studies, their accuracy and software developed for operational services; 3. A comparative assessment of two updating techniques, one based on model parameters and the other on model states. Tests were carried out at a daily time step. The results will be presented on 12 subcatchments of the Aisne and Oise Rivers ranging from 385 to 14900 km².
Afin de moderniser les outils de prévision d'inondation, nous avons développer un modèle pluie-débit qui permet de prévoir à court terme. Ce poster présente : 1. La méthodologie utilisée pour sélectionner les outils pour la modélisation (modèles pluie-débits ; procédures de remise à jour) ; 2. Les outils de modélisation utilisés dans ces études, leur précision et le logiciel développé pour des services opérationnels ; 3. Une évaluation comparative des 2 techniques de remise à jour, l'une basée sur des paramètres de modèle et l'autre sur des états du modèle.

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Dates et versions

hal-02581474 , version 1 (14-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Charles Perrin, Cécile Loumagne, Vazken Andréassian, Claude Michel, Jean-Louis Rosique. Real time flood forecasting with rainfall-runoff models on the Oise River basin in France. EGS-AGU-EUG joint assembly, Nice, 7-11 April 2003, 2003, Nice, France. pp.1. ⟨hal-02581474⟩

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