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Impact du changement climatique sur le déplacement d'une limite bioclimatique en région méditerranéenne

Abstract : This study deals with the shift of the bioclimatic limit separating the distribution areas of Pinus sylvestris and Pinus halepensis in the Mediterranean region. It is based on dendroecology, and on an thorough experimental plan set up in Var county (France) on the north slopes of Sainte-Baume mountain. In this region, the productivity of Pinus halepensis increased during the twentieth century whatever the elevation. In the same period, the productivity of Pinus sylvestris stagnated at a very low level between 300 and 700 m of elevation and reduced a lot from 700 to 1000 m of elevation. The detailed analyse of general climate-growth relations, and of exceptional tree rings related to pointer years, allowed to determine the climatic variables responsible of these productivity variations. Simulating tree rings indexes for the next century with tree growth and climate change models, we showed that during the next few decades the productivity of Pinus sylvestris should go on decreasing slowly and those of Pinus halepensis should go on increasing slightly. From the middle of the twenty first century, the productivity of Pinus sylvestris should collapse, and those of Pinus halepensis should first decrease slightly before a strong fall in the last decades. Pinus halepensis should therefore replace progressively Pinus sylvestris between 700 and 1100 m of elevation. A plot by plot analyse showed a genetic component in these evolutions for both species : Pinus sylvestris stands at low elevation are more resistant to drought than high elevation ones, and Pinus halepensis stands at highest elevations are more resistant to frost than those of low elevation.
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02583969
Contributor : Migration Irstea Publications <>
Submitted on : Thursday, May 14, 2020 - 10:47:36 PM
Last modification on : Monday, March 29, 2021 - 1:54:02 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02583969, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00016062

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B. Vila, M. Vennetier, E. Liang, Raphaël Manlay, C. Ripert, et al.. Impact du changement climatique sur le déplacement d'une limite bioclimatique en région méditerranéenne. irstea. 2003, pp.141. ⟨hal-02583969⟩

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