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Article Dans Une Revue Advances in Geosciences Année : 2011

Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures

L'approche multi-modèle peut-elle améliorer la prévision hydrologique d'ensemble ? Cas d'étude sur 29 bassins versants français et 16 modèles hydrologiques

Maria-Helena Ramos
Charles Perrin

Résumé

An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on a meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with a hydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with the meteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, the structure of the hydrological model is also an important source of uncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluating and comparing the performance and the reliability of different types of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS), when ensemble weather forecasts are combined with a multi-model approach. The study is based on 29 catchments in France and 16 lumped hydrological model structures, driven by the weather forecasts from the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). Results show that the ensemble predictions produced by a combination of several hydrological model structures and meteorological ensembles have higher skill and reliability than ensemble predictions given either by one single hydrological model fed by weather ensemble predictions or by several hydrological models and a deterministic meteorological forecast.

Dates et versions

hal-02594774 , version 1 (15-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

J.A. Velazquez, F. Anctil, Maria-Helena Ramos, Charles Perrin. Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures. Advances in Geosciences, 2011, 29, pp.33-42. ⟨10.5194/adgeo-29-33-2011⟩. ⟨hal-02594774⟩

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