Tracking the uncertainty in streamflow prediction through a hydrological forecasting system
Propagation des incertitudes dans la prévision de débits à partir d'un système de prévision hydrologique
Résumé
Studying the uncertainties in flood forecasting, quantifying and propagating them through the forecasting system can help to gain more information about the different sources of uncertainty that may affect the quality of the forecasts. Several questions can be investigated: what is the impact of different sources of uncertainty on the quality of the forecasts? Among all sources of uncertainty that stem from different components of the system, which sources significantly affect the forecasts? What methods can be used to efficiently quantify and propagate those uncertainties through a forecasting model? The aim of this research is to quantify and propagate different kinds of uncertainty sources that are expected to play a role in a flood forecasting system.