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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins

Résumé

Flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, are difficult to monitor and predict at the spatial and temporal scales of interest due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) need to be taken into account to provide skillful flash flood warnings with increased warning lead time. In France, the AIGA discharge-threshold flood warning system is currently being enhanced to ingest high-resolution ensemble QPFs from convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as well as probabilistic QPEs, to improve flash flood warnings for small-to-medium (from 10 to 1000 km2) ungauged basins.
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Dates et versions

hal-02601393 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

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J. Demargne, P. Javelle, D. Organde, A. Caseri, Maria-Helena Ramos, et al.. Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins. EGU General Assembly, Apr 2015, Vienne, Austria. pp.1. ⟨hal-02601393⟩

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