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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

France-wide evolution of discharges for the next decades: A multi-RCP/GCM/hydrological model and calibration exercise

Résumé

We assess the impact of climate change on discharge module, high and low flows for over 800 river points in France. All the components of the classical modelling chain used for obtaining hydrological projections contain uncertainties, which we try to estimate. For this work, the last CMIP5 projections are used for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The 4 IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were utilized to drive Global Circulation Models, whose outputs were downscaled using the Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method, a statistical method calibrated between a past reference period and the two future periods. In this study, we applied the ADC to an 8x8 km 52-year meteorological reanalysis. Six global conceptual hydrological models (GR4J, GR5J, GR6J, MORD6, TOPMO and HBV0) were used to produce the hydrological projections. In addition, one of the hydrological models was calibrated with several objective-functions and over contrasted climatic periods. We present the future evolution of climate and discharge over France. Regarding discharges, the impact on regimes of RCPs, objective-functions and calibration periods will be shown.

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Dates et versions

hal-02603529 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

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Guillaume Thirel, Madeleine Nicolas, Jules Beersma. France-wide evolution of discharges for the next decades: A multi-RCP/GCM/hydrological model and calibration exercise. 26th IUGG General Assembly 2015, Jun 2015, Prague, Czech Republic. pp.35. ⟨hal-02603529⟩

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