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Vers une production en temps réel d'intervalles prédictifs associés aux prévisions de crue dans Vigicrues en France

Abstract : Towards the real-time production of predictive intervals around streamflow forecasts in Vigicrues in France. Although quantifying uncertainties in modelling is an old topic,many developments have been made over the past fifteen years in the context of flood forecasting, mainly with the development of probabilistic approaches. In France, within the national network for floodforecasting (Vigicrues), developments have been made to propose a post-processing methodology to quantify predictive uncertainty (OTAMIN), which automatically generates confidence intervals around stream flow forecasts, and a tool that is used by forecasters to expertise these confidence intervals (EAO/EXPRESSO). This paper presents the main principles of this general approach, gives an example of its recent application in operational conditions and discusses its usefulness for the users and the general public. Some perspectives of improvement are discussed.
Mots-clés : OTAMIN EAO EXPRESSO
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02610239
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Submitted on : Saturday, May 16, 2020 - 7:21:25 PM
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J. Viatgé, Lionel Berthet, R. Marty, F. Bourgin, O. Piotte, et al.. Vers une production en temps réel d'intervalles prédictifs associés aux prévisions de crue dans Vigicrues en France. La Houille Blanche - Revue internationale de l'eau, EDP Sciences, 2019, pp.63-71. ⟨10.1051/lhb/2019016⟩. ⟨hal-02610239⟩

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