Crafing futures together: scenarios for water infrastructures asset management in the face of global change
Imaginer les futurs ensemble: - scénarios pour la gestion patrimoniale des infrastructures liées à l'eau face au changement global
Résumé
Drinking water supply networks are essential for the economic activity of territories, for their attractiveness and for the well-being of inhabitants. Maintaining a high performance of service over time requires taking into consideration many variables such as ageing infrastructures, demographic changes, socioeconomic dynamics and climate change consequences. In this context, Water Infrastructures Asset Management (WIAM) faces several challenges. This article presents the results of an original forecasting approach based on an interdisciplinary research carried out by a group of engineering and social scientists, and stakeholders. The main objective was to design various possible pathways for the future of a French territory and craft scenarios for WIAM strategies to 2070. The article describes first the main issues WIAM is facing in a global change context. Second we present the original forecasting method used. Third we expose the results and particularly the four prospective scenarios that describe the possible pathways of WIAM by 2070. Fourth scenarios are applied to four case studies in order to build prospective infrastructure needs scenarios. And finally we propose their implications for WIAM strategies and discuss the benefits and limits of such an approach to improve water management.