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Impact du changement climatique sur les risques en forêt : le cas de l'incendie et de ses interactions avec la sécheresse et les pullulations d'insectes

Abstract : In Europe, climate change is expected to exacerbate natural risks in forests. For the Mediterranean regions, the most important known risks are drought, wildfires and insect attacks. The projections of forest fire danger indicate that fires will be more frequent and more intense in Mediterranean region and that the geographical area subjected to this risk will extend towards the north of Europe. These largescale projections rest on empirical relations linking climate variables and fire danger indices. To refine these projections and apply them to forest management scales, in a context of climate change, the biophysical processes of forest functioning that determine fuel moisture and fuel amount are to be considered. Drought impacts these processes, but insect outbreaks may also change fuels fast and strongly. Once fuel is known, fire intensity and impacts may be predicted thanks to physics-based models for fire behaviour, including in new fuel conditions. In this article, we report the projections of forest fire danger for Europe and discuss their limits, we illustrate the possible interactions between insect outbreaks and wildfires, and we describe our fuel and fire modelling approaches, which are based on processes linking climate, vegetation and fire.
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Jean-Luc Dupuy, Thomas Boivin, Y. Duché, Nicolas Martin-Stpaul, François Pimont, et al.. Impact du changement climatique sur les risques en forêt : le cas de l'incendie et de ses interactions avec la sécheresse et les pullulations d'insectes. Innovations Agronomiques, INRAE, 2015, 47, pp.29-50. ⟨10.15454/1.4622684825197546E12⟩. ⟨hal-02630027⟩

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