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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

Modelling CCHF (Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever) spread to identify major factors and test control strategies

Résumé

Purpose: Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is an emerging zoonotic disease. The causative agent is a virus (CCHFV), mainly transmitted by ticks of the species Hyalomma marginatum in Eastern Europe and Turkey. The Turkish outbreak in 2002 is associated with a previous decline in agricultural activities that led to an increase in suitable habitats for ticks, which resulted in great exposure of humans and domestic animals to ticks. In order to test scenarios for the control of pathogen spread, we have developed a mechanistic dynamic model. Methods: Design of a model to apply to a vector-borne disease is based on coupling a population dynamics model, here applied to the tick H. marginatum, with a model of CCHFV transmission. Our model takes into account the major processes involved in tick population and pathogen dynamics. It also considers the influence of abiotic (temperature and vapour saturation deficit) and biotic factors (host, i.e. hare and cattle, densities) on disease spread. The basic reproduction number (R0) for CCHFV infection was calculated thanks to the estimation of the next-generation matrix. Using R0 as output variable, the model was thereafter used to test control strategies and especially the effect of various acaricide treatments, differing by their starting date, their duration and the number of applications. Results: Comparison with data showed that the model is able to reproduce realistically the observed dynamics for tick population and pathogen spread. Simulation results indicate that acaricide treatments could have valuable effects provided that the acaricide is applied early (day 100 in the year), regularly (at least 3 times a year) and over several years. A global sensitivity analysis for abiotic and biotic factors showed that, even though temperature has a strong impact on model outputs, host densities also play a role. Conclusions: In addition to acaricide treatment, one way to decrease pathogen spread could be to act on wildlife hosts, especially hares, for instance by isolating wildlife populations from domestic animals. Relevance: The kind of model we have developed provides insight into the ability of different strategies to control pathogen spread
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Dates et versions

hal-02740659 , version 1 (02-06-2020)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-02740659 , version 1
  • PRODINRA : 334430

Citer

Thierry Hoch, Eric Breton, Mathilde Josse, Ahmet Deniz, Esin Guven, et al.. Modelling CCHF (Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever) spread to identify major factors and test control strategies. 14. International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Nov 2015, Mérida, Yucatan, Mexico. 670 p. ⟨hal-02740659⟩
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