Pine wilt disease, which has killed millions of pines in Asia, was first reported in Europe (Portugal) in 1999. This disease is caused by the pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, and vectored by longhorn beetles of the genus Monochamus. Despite strict control and containment measures, the disease has now spread very widely in Portugal and is now present at a few locations in Spain. Predicting and mapping the potential spread of the nematode and the disease across Europe is crucial to the effective management of this pest. Because the invasion in Europe is relatively recent and containment measures have influenced the natural potential spread of the pest, it has not been possible to parameterize a spread model based on European data. At first, an expansion model initially based on the history of invasion of the pine wilt disease in China was applied to Europe. This model combines short distance spread with a stochastic, individual based model to describe the long distance jumps due to human assisted transportation. Separate introductions of the nematode at 200 European ports were simulated under various climate change scenarios. This study illustrates how a spread model can be used to determine the critical points of entry for invasive species, so that surveillance can be targeted more accurately and control measures prioritised.