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Communication dans un congrès

Brittany: Agricultural and Agri-food Products in 2020. Foresight as an Instrument to Aid Decision Making for Development in a Region of France

Abstract : In this work, which combines research and practice, we show that the SYSPAHMM© method is a tool for reflection on future regional development. We also present the results of a foresight study whose objective is to help local decision-makers in their decision-making process for the development of their economic sector and their region, taking the European and world context into account. This work, commissioned by stakeholders involved in agriculture in a region of France, included more than 100 people from different backgrounds. The foresight method applied is known as SYSPAHMM© (SYStem, Processes, Clusters of Hypotheses, Micro and Macroscenarios) (Sebillotte M., Sebillotte C., 2002). In this study, we adapted this methodology to a regional foresight study carried out in Brittany, a major agricultural and agro-industrial region of France, where these activities constitute one of the pillars of the regional economy. This method, based on a systemic view of the various issues addressed, relies on elements from systems theory and uses graphic representation models, hypothesis matrices and techniques to produce hypothesis clusters. Another aspect of this method is its originality in that it involves different participants (foresight group, experts, etc.) who together participate in the construction of a collective knowledge base throughout the study. The first stage of this foresight method is a static and dynamic representation of the agricultural and agro-industrial system of Brittany, including an in-depth description of its current and its past situation. The second stage, the most important from the point of view of foresight, is the development of microscenarios for the year 2020. This foresight study made it possible for us to distinguish five microscenario families related to the development of the agricultural and agro-industrial sector and rural areas in Brittany. They are organised around five major issues concerning the region. The first family corresponds to the broad lines of production for farmers and agro-food firms in Brittany. The second examines the different options for Brittany in view of the international division of production and labour. The third family places energy and water at the core of the agricultural and agro-industrial development project for Brittany by considering various options. The fourth family examines the organisational forms of agricultural and agro-industrial activities and of rural areas from the point of view of the different degrees of liberalism of the economic context. The fifth and last family allows us to explore various possible economic development and land-use models in Brittany and to therefore test the balance between agriculture and other economic activities. These five microscenario families represent different ways of looking at regional development and, depending on the stakeholders, each family will be more or less strengthened in the construction of global scenarios. Finally, after assessing the challenges and consequences of each of the scenarios, we provide recommendations for using these five microscenario families in order to develop a comprehensive strategic plan for regional development in Brittany.
Type de document :
Communication dans un congrès
Liste complète des métadonnées
Déposant : Migration Prodinra <>
Soumis le : samedi 6 juin 2020 - 15:36:50
Dernière modification le : mercredi 9 septembre 2020 - 16:22:02


  • HAL Id : hal-02818307, version 1
  • PRODINRA : 31993



Clementina Sebillotte, Michel Sebillotte, Françoise Ledos. Brittany: Agricultural and Agri-food Products in 2020. Foresight as an Instrument to Aid Decision Making for Development in a Region of France. 3. International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making, European Commission - Joint Research Centre (Seville) (JRC). ESP., Oct 2008, Séville, Spain. 14 p. ⟨hal-02818307⟩



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