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Article Dans Une Revue Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Année : 2018

Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events

Résumé

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the statistical features of extremely rare events (in terms of frequency and magnitude) at different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the first extended version integrates heavy-tailed distributions, spatial tail dependence, and temporal dependence in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. A second version enhances the first version using a disaggregation method. The performance of these models is compared at different temporal and spatial scales on a large region covering approximately half of Switzerland. While daily extremes are adequately reproduced at the stations by all models, including the benchmark Wilks version, extreme precipitation amounts at larger temporal scales (e.g., 3-day amounts) are clearly underestimated when temporal dependence is ignored.
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hal-02912352 , version 1 (12-03-2021)

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Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoît Hingray. Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, 22 (1), pp.655-672. ⟨10.5194/hess-22-655-2018⟩. ⟨hal-02912352⟩
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