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A ‘what-if’ scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand

Abstract : Nipah virus (NiV) is a fatal zoonotic agent that was first identified amongst pig farmers in Malaysia in 1998, in an outbreak that resulted in 105 fatal human cases. That epidemic arose from a chain of infection, initiating from bats to pigs, and which then spilled over from pigs to humans. In Thailand, bat-pig-human communities can be observed across the country, particularly in the central plain. The present study therefore aimed to identify high-risk areas for potential NiV outbreaks and to model how the virus is likely to spread. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and weighted linear combination (WLC) were employed to produce the NiV risk map. The map was then overlaid with the nationwide pig movement network to identify the index subdistricts in which NiV may emerge. Subsequently, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) modeling was used to simulate NiV spread within each subdistrict, and network modeling was used to illustrate how the virus disperses across subdistricts.
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02934378
Déposant : Anne-Sophie Martel <>
Soumis le : mercredi 9 septembre 2020 - 11:43:49
Dernière modification le : mardi 15 septembre 2020 - 03:37:00

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Phrutsamon Wongnak, Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Worapan Kusakunniran, Sarattha Karnjanapreechakorn, Krittanat Sutassananon, et al.. A ‘what-if’ scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand. BMC Veterinary Research, BioMed Central, 2020, 16 (1), pp.300. ⟨10.1186/s12917-020-02502-4⟩. ⟨hal-02934378⟩

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