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The best COVID-19 predictor is recent smell loss: a cross-sectional study

Richard Gerkin 1 Kathrin Ohla 2 Maria Geraldine Veldhuizen 3 Paule Joseph 4 Christine Kelly 5 Alyssa Bakke 6 Kimberley Steele 4 Robert Pellegrino 7 Marta Pepino 8 Cédric Bouysset 9 Graciela Soler 10 Veronica Pereda-Loth 11 Michele Dibattista 12 Keiland Cooper 13 Ilja Croijmans 14 Antonella Di Pizio 15 M. Hakan Ozdener 16 Anna d'Errico 17 Florian Ph.S Fischmeister 18 María Adelaida Bock 19 Paloma Paloma Domínguez 20 Hüseyin Yanık 3 Sanne Boesveldt 21 Jasper de Groot 22 Caterina Dinnella 23 Jessica Freiherr 24 Tatiana Laktionova 25 Sajidxa Mariño 26 Erminio Monteleone 27 Alexia Nunez-Parra 28 Olagunju Abdulrahman 29 Marina Ritchie 13 Thierry Thomas-Danguin 30, 31 Julie Walsh-Messinger 32 Rashid Al Abri 33 Rafieh Alizadeh 34 Emmanuelle Bignon 9 Elena Cantone 35 Maria Paola Cecchini 36 Jingguo Chen 37, 38 Maria Dolors Guàrdia 39 Kara Hoover 40 Noam Karni 41 Marta Navarro 42 Alissa Nolden 43 Patricia Portillo Mazal 44 Nicholas Rowan 45 Atiye Sarabi-Jamab 46 Nicholas Archer 47 Ben Chen 48 Elizabeth Di Valerio 49 Emma Feeney 50 Johannes Frasnelli 51 Mackenzie Hannum 16 Claire Hopkins 52 Hadar Klein 53 Coralie Mignot 54 Carla Mucignat 55 Yuping Ning 48 Elif Ozturk 56 Mei Peng 57 Ozlem Saatci 58 Elizabeth Sell 59 Carol Yan 60 Raul Alfaro 8 Cinzia Cecchetto 55 Gérard Coureaud 61 Riley Herriman 16 Jeb Justice 62 Pavan Kumar Kaushik 63 Sachiko Koyama 64 Jonathan Overdevest 65 Nicola Pirastu 66 Vicente Ramirez 67 S. Craig Roberts 68 Barry Smith 69 Hongyuan Cao 70 Hong Wang 16 Patrick Balungwe 71 Marius Baguma 71 Maria Veldhuizen 3 Michael Farruggia 72 Antonella Pizio 73 M Hakan Ozdener 16 Alexander Fjaeldstad 74 Cailu Lin 16 Mari Sandell 75 Preet Singh 76 V. Evelyn Brindha 77 Shannon Olsson 63 Luis Saraiva 78 Gaurav Ahuja 79 Mohammed Alwashahi 33 Surabhi Bhutani 80 Anna d'Errico 81 Marco Fornazieri 82 Jérôme Golebiowski 9 Liang-Dar Hwang 42 Lina Öztürk 3 Eugeni Roura 83 Sara Spinelli 27 Katherine Whitcroft 84 Farhoud Faraji 60 Florian Fischmeister 18 Thomas Heinbockel 85 Julien Hsieh 86 Caroline Huart 87 Iordanis Konstantinidis 88, 89 Anna Menini 90 Gabriella Morini 91 Jonas Olofsson Carl Philpott Denis Pierron 92 Vonnie Shields 93 Vera Voznessenskaya 25 Javier Albayay 94 Aytug Altundag 95 Moustafa Bensafi 96 María Bock 19 Orietta Calcinoni 97 William Fredborg 91 Christophe Laudamiel 98 Juyun Lim 99 Johan Lundström 100 Alberto Macchi 101 Pablo Meyer 102 Shima Moein 46 Enrique Santamaría 103 Debarka Sengupta 79 Paloma Rohlfs Dominguez 20 Hüseyin Yanik 3 Gccr Group Thomas Hummel 54 John Hayes 104 Danielle Reed 16 Masha Niv 53 Steven Munger 49 Valentina Parma 105, *
* Corresponding author
Résumé : Background: COVID-19 has heterogeneous manifestations, though one of the most common symptoms is a sudden loss of smell (anosmia or hyposmia). We investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19. Methods: This preregistered, cross-sectional study used a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0-100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n=4148) or negative (C19-; n=546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified singular and cumulative predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Results: Both C19+ and C19- groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean±SD, C19+: -82.5±27.2 points; C19-: -59.8±37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both single and cumulative feature models (ROC AUC=0.72), with additional features providing no significant model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms, such as fever or cough. Olfactory recovery within 40 days was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since illness onset. Conclusions: As smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19, we developed the ODoR-19 tool, a 0-10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss. Numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (10
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02979656
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 27, 2020 - 11:35:13 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 24, 2021 - 9:54:15 AM

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Richard Gerkin, Kathrin Ohla, Maria Geraldine Veldhuizen, Paule Joseph, Christine Kelly, et al.. The best COVID-19 predictor is recent smell loss: a cross-sectional study. 2020. ⟨hal-02979656⟩

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