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Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Rupert Bourne 1 Jaimie Steinmetz 2 Seth Flaxman 3 Paul Svitil Briant 2 Hugh Taylor 4 Serge Resnikoff 5 Robert James Casson 6 Amir Abdoli 7 Eman Abu-Gharbieh 8 Ashkan Afshin 2 Hamid Ahmadieh 9 Yonas Akalu 10 Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh 11 Wondu Alemayehu 12 Ahmed Samir Alfaar 13 Vahid Alipour 14 Etsay Woldu Anbesu 15 Sofia Androudi 16 Jalal Arabloo 14 Aries Arditi 17 Malke Asaad 18 Eleni Bagli 19 Atif Amin Baig 20 Till Winfried Bärnighausen 7 Maurizio Battaglia Parodi 21 Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula 22 Nikha Bhardwaj 23 Pankaj Bhardwaj 24 Krittika Bhattacharyya 25 Ali Bijani 26 Mukharram Bikbov 27 Michele Bottone 3 Tasanee Braithwaite 28 Alain Bron 29, 30, 31 Zahid Butt 32 Ching-Yu Cheng 33 Dinh-Toi Chu 34 Maria Vittoria Cicinelli 35 João Coelho 36 Baye Dagnew 10 Xiaochen Dai 2 Reza Dana 37 Lalit Dandona 2 Rakhi Dandona 2 Monte del Monte 38 Jenny Deva 39 Daniel Diaz 40 Shirin Djalalinia 41 Laura Dreer 42 Joshua Ehrlich 38 Leon Ellwein 43 Mohammad Hassan Emamian 44 Arthur Fernandes 45 Florian Fischer 46 David Friedman 37 João Furtado 47 Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane 48 Shilpa Gaidhane 48 Gus Gazzard 49 Berhe Gebremichael 50 Ronnie George 51 Ahmad Ghashghaee 14 Mahaveer Golechha 52 Samer Hamidi 53 Billy Randall Hammond 54 Mary Elizabeth R Hartnett 55 Risky Kusuma Hartono 56 Simon Hay 2 Golnaz Heidari 57 Hung Chak Ho 58 Chi Linh Hoang 59 Mowafa Househ 59 Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye 60 Irena Ilic 61 Milena Ilic 62 April Ingram 57 Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani 9 Ravi Prakash Jha 63 Rim Kahloun 64 Himal Kandel 65 Ayele Semachew Kasa 66 John Kempen 67 Maryam Keramati 68 Moncef Khairallah 69 Ejaz Ahmad Khan 70 Rohit Khanna 71 Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib 48 Judy Kim 72 Yun Jin Kim 73 Sezer Kisa 74 Adnan Kisa 75 Ai Koyanagi 76 Om Kurmi 77 van Charles Lansingh 78 Janet Leasher 79 Nicolas Leveziel 80 Hans Limburg 81 Marek Majdan 82 Navid Manafi 83 Kaweh Mansouri 84 Colm Mcalinden 85 Seyed Farzad Mohammadi 86 Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani 87 Reza Mohammadpourhodki 68 Ali Mokdad 88 Delaram Moosavi 89 Alan Morse 90 Mehdi Naderi 91 Kovin Naidoo 92 Vinay Nangia 93 Cuong Tat Nguyen 94 Huong Lan Thi Nguyen 94 Kolawole Ogundimu 95 Andrew Olagunju 77 Samuel Ostroff 2 Songhomitra Panda-Jonas 96 Konrad Pesudovs 97 Tunde Peto 98 Zahiruddin Quazi Syed 48 Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman 99 Pradeep Ramulu 100 Salman Rawaf 101 David Laith Rawaf Nickolas Reinig Alan Robin Luca Rossetti Sare Safi Amirhossein Sahebkar Abdallah Samy Deepak Saxena Janet Serle Masood Ali Shaikh Tueng Shen Kenji Shibuya Jae Il Shin Juan Carlos Silva Alexander Silvester Jasvinder Singh Deepika Singhal Rita Sitorus Eirini Skiadaresi Vegard Skirbekk Amin Soheili Raúl Sousa Emma Elizabeth Spurlock Dwight Stambolian Biruk Wogayehu Taddele Eyayou Girma Tadesse Nina Tahhan Md Ismail Tareque Fotis Topouzis Bach Xuan Tran Ravensara Travillian Miltiadis Tsilimbaris Rohit Varma Gianni Virgili Ya Xing Wang Ningli Wang Sheila West Tien Wong Zoubida Zaidi Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie Jost Jonas Theo Vos Funding Holden
Abstract : Background To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with dearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UN]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity >= 6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10 degrees visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision= 6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050. Findings In 2020, an estimated 43.3 million (95% UI 37.6-48.4) people were blind, of whom 23.9 million (55%; 20.8-26.8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%; 147-179) were female; 258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%; 128-157) were female; and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%; 205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28.5% (-29.4 to -27.7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0.3%, -0.8 to -0.2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impainnent increased slightly (2.5%, 1.9 to 3.2; insufficient data were available to calculate this statistic for vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia). In this period, the number of people who were blind increased by 50.6% (47.8 to 53.4) and the number with moderate and severe vision impairment increased by 91.7% (87.6 to 95.8). By 2050, we predict 61.0 million (52.9 to 69.3) people will be blind, 474 million (428 to 518) will have moderate and severe vision impairment, 360 million (322 to 400) will have mild vision impairment, and 866 million (629 to 1150) will have uncorrected presbyopia. Interpretation Age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past three decades, yet due to population growth, progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.
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Submitted on : Thursday, June 24, 2021 - 9:43:16 AM
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Rupert Bourne, Jaimie Steinmetz, Seth Flaxman, Paul Svitil Briant, Hugh Taylor, et al.. Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet global health, Elsevier, 2021, 9 (2), pp.e130-e143. ⟨10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30425-3⟩. ⟨hal-03269489⟩

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