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Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to agricultural sector

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Abstract

Flood damage assessment is crucial for evaluating flood management policies. In particular, properly assessing damage to the agricultural assets is important because they may have greater exposure and are complex economic systems. The modelling approaches used to assess flood damage are of several types and can be fed by damage data collected post-flood, from experiments or based on expert knowledge. The process-based models fed by expert knowledge are subject of research and also widely used in an operational way. Although identified as potentially transferable, they are in reality often case-specific and difficult to reuse in time (updatbililty) and space (transferability). In this paper, we argue that process-based models are not doomed to be context specific as far as the modelling process is rigorous. We propose a methodological framework aiming at verifying the conditions necessary to develop these models in a spirit of capitalisation by relying on four axes which are: i/ the explicitation of assumptions, ii/ the validation, iii/ the updatability, iv/ the transferability. The methodological framework is then applied to the model we have developed in France to produce national damage functions for the agricultural sector. We show in this paper that the proposed methodological framework allows an explicit description of the modelling assumptions and data used, which is necessary to consider a reuse in time or a transfer to another geographical area. We also highlight that despite the lack of feedback data on post-flood damages, the proposed methodological framework is a solid basis to consider the validation, transfer, comparison and capitalisation of data collected around process-based models relying on expert knowledge. In conclusion, we identify research tracks to be implemented to pursue this improvement in a spirit of capitalisation and international cooperation.
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Dates and versions

hal-03739713 , version 1 (28-07-2022)

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Attribution - CC BY 4.0

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Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, Claire Richert. Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to agricultural sector. 2022. ⟨hal-03739713⟩
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