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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Sustainability Année : 2022

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Anna Chrysafi (1, 2) , Vili Virkki (1) , Mika Jalava (1) , Vilma Sandström (1) , Johannes Piipponen (1) , Miina Porkka (1, 3) , Steven Lade (4, 5) , Kelsey La Mere (6) , Lan Wang-Erlandsson (4) , Laura Scherer (7) , Lauren Andersen (8) , Elena Bennett (9) , Kate Brauman (10) , Gregory Cooper (11) , Adriana de Palma (12) , Petra Döll (13, 14) , Andrea Downing (3, 4) , Timothy Dubois (4) , Ingo Fetzer (4) , Elizabeth Fulton (15, 16) , Dieter Gerten (8, 17) , Hadi Jaafar (17) , Jonas Jägermeyr (8, 18) , Fernando Jaramillo (19, 4) , Martin Jung (4) , Helena Kahiluoto (20) , Luis Lassaletta (21) , Anson Mackay (22) , Daniel Mason-D’croz (23, 24, 25) , Mesfin Mekonnen (26) , Kirsty Nash (27, 10) , Amandine Pastor (28, 29) , Navin Ramankutty (30, 31) , Brad Ridoutt (32, 31) , Stefan Siebert (33, 34) , Benno Simmons (34) , Arie Staal (35) , Zhongxiao Sun (36, 7) , Arne Tobian (4, 8) , Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño (37, 23) , Ruud van der Ent (38) , Arnout van Soesbergen (39, 40) , Peter Verburg (41) , Yoshihide Wada (4) , Sam Zipper (42) , Matti Kummu (1)
1 Aalto University
2 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
3 The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
4 Stockholm University
5 ANU - Australian National University
6 University of Tampere [Finland]
7 Universiteit Leiden = Leiden University
8 Leibniz Association
9 McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
10 UA - University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa]
11 University of Sheffield [Sheffield]
12 Imperial College London
13 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
14 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
15 CSIRO-MAR - CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
16 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Launceston]
17 HSU - Humboldt State University
18 AUB - American University of Beirut [Beyrouth]
19 Columbia University [New York]
20 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
21 LUT - Lappeenranta University of Technology [Finlande]
22 UPM - Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
23 UCL - University College of London [London]
24 AEP Cornell - School of Applied and Engineering physics [Ithaca]
25 CSIRO - CSIRO Agriculture and Food
26 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
27 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia]
28 UMR ITAP - Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain
29 cE3c - Centre for Ecology - Evolution and Environmental Changes
30 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
31 UBC - University of British Columbia
32 Cornell University [New York]
33 UFS - University of the Free State [South Africa]
34 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
35 University of Exeter
36 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
37 CAU - China Agricultural University
38 BC3 - Basque Centre for Climate Change
39 TU Delft - Delft University of Technology
40 King‘s College London
41 UNEP-WCMC - UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
42 Institute for Environmental Studies -IVM
Anna Chrysafi
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Aalto University
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Vili Virkki
Aalto University
Mika Jalava
Aalto University
Vilma Sandström
  • Fonction : Auteur
Aalto University
Johannes Piipponen
Aalto University
Miina Porkka
Aalto University
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Steven Lade
Stockholm University
Australian National University
Kelsey La Mere
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Tampere [Finland]
Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Stockholm University
Laura Scherer
Universiteit Leiden = Leiden University
Lauren Andersen
Leibniz Association
Elena Bennett
  • Fonction : Auteur
McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
Kate Brauman
University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa]
Gregory Cooper
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Sheffield [Sheffield]
Adriana de Palma
  • Fonction : Auteur
Imperial College London
Petra Döll
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Andrea Downing
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Stockholm University
Timothy Dubois
  • Fonction : Auteur
Stockholm University
Ingo Fetzer
Stockholm University
Elizabeth Fulton
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
University of Tasmania [Launceston]
Dieter Gerten
Leibniz Association
Humboldt State University
Hadi Jaafar
Humboldt State University
Jonas Jägermeyr
Leibniz Association
American University of Beirut [Beyrouth]
Fernando Jaramillo
Columbia University [New York]
Stockholm University
Martin Jung
Stockholm University
Helena Kahiluoto
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Luis Lassaletta
Lappeenranta University of Technology [Finlande]
Anson Mackay
  • Fonction : Auteur
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Daniel Mason-D’croz
University College of London [London]
School of Applied and Engineering physics [Ithaca]
CSIRO Agriculture and Food
Mesfin Mekonnen
Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Kirsty Nash
University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia]
University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa]
Amandine Pastor
Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain
Centre for Ecology - Evolution and Environmental Changes
CV
Navin Ramankutty
Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
University of British Columbia
Brad Ridoutt
Cornell University [New York]
University of British Columbia
Stefan Siebert
University of the Free State [South Africa]
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Benno Simmons
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Arie Staal
University of Exeter
Zhongxiao Sun
Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Universiteit Leiden = Leiden University
Arne Tobian
Stockholm University
Leibniz Association
Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño
China Agricultural University
University College of London [London]
Ruud van der Ent
Basque Centre for Climate Change
Arnout van Soesbergen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Delft University of Technology
King‘s College London
Peter Verburg
UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Yoshihide Wada
Stockholm University
Sam Zipper
Institute for Environmental Studies -IVM
Matti Kummu
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Aalto University

Résumé

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

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Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]
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Soumis le : lundi 29 août 2022-19:24:33

Dernière modification le : mardi 26 mars 2024-17:44:13

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hal-03763821 , version 1 (29-08-2022)

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Anna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki, Mika Jalava, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, et al.. Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. Nature Sustainability, 2022, ⟨10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6⟩. ⟨hal-03763821⟩

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