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Journal Articles Nature Sustainability Year : 2022

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

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Anna Chrysafi
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Aalto University
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Vili Virkki
Aalto University
Mika Jalava
Aalto University
Vilma Sandström
  • Function : Author
Aalto University
Johannes Piipponen
Aalto University
Miina Porkka
Aalto University
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Steven Lade
Stockholm University
Australian National University
Kelsey La Mere
  • Function : Author
University of Tampere [Finland]
Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Stockholm University
Laura Scherer
Leiden University
Lauren Andersen
Leibniz Association
Elena Bennett
  • Function : Author
McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
Kate Brauman
University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa]
Gregory Cooper
  • Function : Author
University of Sheffield [Sheffield]
Adriana de Palma
  • Function : Author
Imperial College London
Petra Döll
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Andrea Downing
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Stockholm University
Timothy Dubois
  • Function : Author
Stockholm University
Ingo Fetzer
Stockholm University
Elizabeth Fulton
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
University of Tasmania [Launceston]
Dieter Gerten
Leibniz Association
Humboldt State University
Hadi Jaafar
Humboldt State University
Jonas Jägermeyr
Leibniz Association
American University of Beirut [Beyrouth]
Fernando Jaramillo
Columbia University [New York]
Stockholm University
Martin Jung
Stockholm University
Helena Kahiluoto
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
Luis Lassaletta
Lappeenranta University of Technology [Finlande]
Anson Mackay
  • Function : Author
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Daniel Mason-D’croz
University College of London [London]
School of Applied and Engineering physics [Ithaca]
CSIRO Agriculture and Food
Mesfin Mekonnen
Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Kirsty Nash
University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia]
University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa]
Amandine Pastor
Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain
Centre for Ecology - Evolution and Environmental Changes
CV
Navin Ramankutty
Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
University of British Columbia
Brad Ridoutt
Cornell University [New York]
University of British Columbia
Stefan Siebert
University of the Free State [South Africa]
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Benno Simmons
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Arie Staal
University of Exeter
Zhongxiao Sun
Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Leiden University
Arne Tobian
Stockholm University
Leibniz Association
Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño
China Agricultural University
University College of London [London]
Ruud van der Ent
Basque Centre for Climate Change
Arnout van Soesbergen
  • Function : Author
Delft University of Technology
King‘s College London
Peter Verburg
UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Yoshihide Wada
Stockholm University
Sam Zipper
Institute for Environmental Studies -IVM
Matti Kummu
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Aalto University

Abstract

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

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Life Sciences [q-bio]
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03763821

Submitted on : Monday, August 29, 2022-7:24:33 PM

Last modification on : Tuesday, January 24, 2023-3:53:01 AM

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hal-03763821 , version 1 (29-08-2022)

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Attribution - CC BY 4.0

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Anna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki, Mika Jalava, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, et al.. Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. Nature Sustainability, 2022, ⟨10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6⟩. ⟨hal-03763821⟩

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