Brown rot in stored stone fruits, caused by Monilinia spp., may be due to preharvest and storage factors, but the combined effect of these factors has yet to be investigated. We set up two experiments to monitor the progression of brown rot during the storage of nectarines subjected to various preharvest and storage conditions. We assessed the effects of different agricultural practices (irrigation regimen × fruit load) and harvest dates on brown rot progress during storage in 2018 and the effect of different storage temperatures in 2019. We found that the cumulative incidence of brown rot during storage increased with individual fruit mass, which was influenced by agricultural practices, and for later harvest dates. It also increased with storage temperature. We observed that during storage no secondary infections developed in nectarines not in direct contact with fruits infected with Monilinia laxa. These findings led to the identification of candidate variables describing the brown rot risk on nectarines during storage, such as individual fruit mass, meteorological conditions before fruit harvest, prevalence of brown rot at harvest, and storage temperature. We used these variables to build a mathematical model for estimating the time-to-appearance of brown rot symptoms in stored nectarines. This model fitted the experimental data well, highlighting the need to pay greater attention to the interaction between preharvest and storage conditions. This model could be used to evaluate management strategies for reducing the impact of brown rot in nectarines during storage.