To what extent can silviculture foster forest adaptation to climate change? A demo-genetic modelling approach with stress and disturbance regimes - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement
Conference Papers Year : 2023

To what extent can silviculture foster forest adaptation to climate change? A demo-genetic modelling approach with stress and disturbance regimes

Abstract

In managed forests, a classical strategy of adaptation to climate change consists in reducing tree density for short-term benefits on drought stress level, growth and survival, but the long-term evolutionary impacts are poorly considered. An alternative strategy would be to maintain some level of environmental pressure to promote acclimation and genetic adaptation through natural selection. Here, we developed an individual-based demo-genetic modelling approach to study the impacts of silviculture on eco-evolutionary processes in forest tree populations and search for a compromise between short- and long-term objectives. The model combines growth, competition, regeneration and disturbance regimes, which jointly drive survival and mating success, with genetic variation of quantitative traits related to these processes. The evolutionary rates predicted by the coupled demo-genetic model for two growth-related traits, vigor and sensitivity to drought stress, fit in with the range of empirical estimates found in the literature for wild plant and animal populations. Using this model to simulate contrasting silvicultural strategies, drought regimes and inter-individual variations, we characterized and quantified the effect of various thinning scenarios on drought impacts and genetic evolution over three generations of trees. We showed that silvicultural interventions partly substitute for natural selection. The more intensive the silviculture, i.e. more frequent, early and intensive thinnings, the lower the adaptive evolution in both vigor and drought resistance: compared to the baseline scenario with no management, the most intensive silviculture reduced the evolutionary rate by up to 50%. Intensive silviculture was efficient in the short term in reducing stress and its impacts on stand performances. However, when there was enough within-stand genetic variation for drought sensitivity, strategies that favored natural selection processes could be more efficient to improve the forest response to stress. As a compromise between short- and long-term benefits, we propose an evolution-oriented strategy consisting in maintaining a period of high density in the juvenile stage to maintain some level of stress exposure and promote natural selection, followed by a classical stress reduction strategy by thinning to reduce the vulnerability in later stages. This research illustrates the potential of demo-genetic models, here combined with regimes of disturbance impacts, to explore and assess different population management options across multiple temporal horizons.
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Dates and versions

hal-04212857 , version 1 (20-09-2023)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hal-04212857 , version 1

Cite

Victor Fririon, Hendrik Davi, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio, Gauthier Ligot, Francois Lefèvre. To what extent can silviculture foster forest adaptation to climate change? A demo-genetic modelling approach with stress and disturbance regimes. European Conference on Ecological Modeling (ECEM2023), Sep 2023, Leipzig (DE), Germany. ⟨hal-04212857⟩
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