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                  <title>Assises nationales des risques naturels</title>
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                  <date type="end">2022-10-14</date>
                  <settlement>Strasbourg</settlement>
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              <p>La prévision des crues et des inondations revêt des enjeux très importants en France, en termes de protection des biens et des personnes. Les dégâts liés aux inondations se chiffrent régulièrement en centaines de millions d’euros, en lien avec des événements de crue très variables dans leur dynamique, leur emprise spatiale et leur intensité. Pour faire face à ces enjeux, INRAE a développé, en partenariat avec le Service central d’hydrométéorologie et d’appui à la prévision des inondations (SCHAPI) un programme de recherche de long terme sur l’amélioration des connaissances et des méthodes d’anticipation des aléas de crue et d’inondation. Démarré en 2003, ce programme s’est attaché à faire progresser (1) la connaissance des débits en rivière par l’amélioration des techniques d’hydrométrie et d’estimation des incertitudes associées ; (2) les chaînes d’avertissement aux crues soudaines (c’est-à-dire avec des temps de réaction courts), en particulier sur les cours d’eau non jaugés, en dehors du réseau réglementaire ; (3) les chaînes de prévision des crues sur les stations réglementaires jaugées, avec une aide à la mise en vigilance à 24h et au-delà.Sur chacun de ces volets, des outils et méthodes ont été développés et évalués à travers différentes actions de recherche, avant d’être transférés pour des applications opérationnelles. On peut citer par exemple le développement des jaugeages par vidéo (logiciel Fudaa-LSPIV), la quantification des incertitudes des jaugeages (intercomparaisons, ajouts au sein des logiciels Barème et QRevInt) et des courbes de tarage hauteur-débit (logiciel BaRatinAGE), le développement de la plateforme nationale Vigicrues Flash ou encore la mise au point de l’outil de prévision GRP et du module OTAMIN de quantification des incertitudes associées. Tous ces outils font l’objet d’échanges réguliers avec les utilisateurs opérationnels, dans le cadre de groupes utilisateurs ou de travail, permettant de collecter les retours d’expérience, d’identifier les limites des outils, et ainsi de contribuer à la formalisation de nouvelles questions de recherche.  L’objectif de ce poster est de présenter un résumé des principaux outils et méthodes développées dans le cadre de ce partenariat de long terme, d’expliciter leurs caractéristiques et domaines d’application et de discuter de leurs perspectives d’évolution.</p>
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