Report on future projections of flow intermittence for the 6 European focal DRN - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Access content directly
Reports Year : 2023

Report on future projections of flow intermittence for the 6 European focal DRN

Abstract

Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) account for more than half of the world's rivers. However, few studies have investigated the evolution of IRES under climate change. To overcome this problem, DRYvER proposed to provide daily hydrological projections, daily flow conditions and flow intermittence indicators in 6 European Drying River Networks (DRNs). The current work aims to provide reach-scale daily flow conditions and flow intermittence indicators for the period 1985-2100 for each DRN. To this end, daily reach-scale hydrological projections - driven by several global climate models and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) - are used as input to a random forest algorithm trained in the historical period with actual observations of daily flow conditions. Once the flow conditions have been generated, a set of flow intermittence indicators is calculated to study the evolution of intermittence through the 21st century. Results highlight the coherence of the intermittence projections and intermittence reconstruction over the period 1985-2014. The inter-annual number of dry days of each reach of the DRNs from the projections are quite close to those from the reconstruction. Furthermore, the seasonality is well captured on all 6 DRNs, providing a reasonable confidence for future intermittence projections. The period 1985-2100 globally highlights a steady increase of the intermittence on all DRNs, with an intensity linked to the SSPs considered – i.e. higher increase with higher emissions - and the period considered. The study also suggests the transition of some reaches from perennial to intermittent, depending on the catchments, the SSP and the period considered.
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Dates and versions

hal-04620640 , version 1 (21-06-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04620640 , version 1

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Annika Künne, Louise Mimeau, Alexandre Devers, Sven Kralisch, Flora Branger, et al.. Report on future projections of flow intermittence for the 6 European focal DRN. Friedrich Schiller Universität. 2023. ⟨hal-04620640⟩
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