Report on downscaling global climate projections for catchment-scale hydrological modelling - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement
Rapport Année : 2023

Report on downscaling global climate projections for catchment-scale hydrological modelling

Résumé

Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) account for more than half of the world's rivers. However, few studies have investigated the evolution of IRES under climate change. Aiming to overcome this problem, DRYvER proposed to provide daily hydrological projections, daily flow conditions and flow intermittence indicators in 6 European Drying River Networks (DRNs). The current work aims to produce reach-scale daily hydrological projections available for the period 1985-2100 for each DRN. To this end, coarse spatial resolution daily projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are downscaled to obtain high resolution projections over the period 1971-2100. Secondly, the high-resolution projections are used as input to the JAMS/J2000 model to obtain daily catchment-scale hydrological projections. Several GCMs are used as well as 3 shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to capture the uncertainty due to climate modelling and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results show that the methodology is able to reproduce the historical hydrological behaviour of the DRNs in terms of seasonality, with some difficulties in Morava and Vantaanjoki regarding summer discharge. Regarding the future periods, the responses of the six catchments were clearly different, showing an impact of climate change closely related to their location. Spring, summer and autumn discharges show a decrease for all catchments and all SSPs considered. For winter discharge, two of the catchments show a slight increase, but the other four also show a decrease of varying intensity.
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Dates et versions

hal-04620643 , version 1 (21-06-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04620643 , version 1

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Alexandre Devers, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, et al.. Report on downscaling global climate projections for catchment-scale hydrological modelling. Inrae. 2023. ⟨hal-04620643⟩
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