Water pollution is a one of the most contributors to aquatic biodiversity decline. Consequently, ecological risk assessment methods have been developed to investigate the effects of existing stresses on the environment, including the toxic effects of chemicals. One of the existing approaches to quantify toxic risks is called “Potentially Affected Fraction of species” (PAF), which estimates the potential loss of species within a group of species studied. In this study, the PAF method was applied to the Garonne catchment (southwest France) due to the limited information available on the involvement of water pollution in the decline of diadromous fish populations. This approach was used to quantify the potential toxic risk associated with chemical contamination of water for fish species. The objectives were to quantify this risk (1) in the Garonne and Dordogne rivers and (2) in the spawning grounds of two endangered anadromous fish species: the allis shad and the European sturgeon during the development period of their early life stages. Environmental pollution data was provided for 21 sites within the Garonne catchment between 2007 and 2022, and toxicity data was obtained specifically from freshwater toxicity tests on fish species. Then, for each site and each year, the potential toxic risk for a single substance (ssPAF) and for a mixture of substances (msPAF) was calculated and classified as high (>5%), moderate (>1% and <5%) or low (<1%). Potential toxic risks were mostly moderate and mainly associated with: metals > other industrial pollutants and hygiene and care products > agrochemicals. In summary, this study highlights the probable involvement of water contamination on the decline, fate and restoration of diadromous fish populations in the Garonne catchment, focusing notably on the toxic effects on early life stages, a previously understudied topic.