H2020 COASTAL - Deliverable D08 Model Validity – Final
Abstract
Following Task 2.1 in WP2 and its Deliverable D06 (Model and Data Inventory -submitted in December 2018 and updated in October 2020), Task 2.2 aims to translate and synthesize available modelling approaches, their results and reported data, as outlined in the D06 report, into equations, parameter settings and quantitative input for SD model quantification in all MALs. The current report is the second deliverable of WP2 and summarizes different approaches used to make available data, and supporting models (other than SD models) and their results applicable for the SD model quantification in the various MALs during the past 26 months of the project (months 7-32).
The report includes an introduction of COASTAL, WP2, and Task 2.2 (sections 1 and 2), and highlights general knowledge transition needs within and across all MALs in this project (section 3). It also outlines various examples of data synthesis and translation related to MAL2 and MAL3 (section 3), developed by Stockholm University (SU) -task leader and co-leader of WP2, leader of the Swedish MAL3, and co-leader of the Greek MAL2 -and discussed with other MAL leaders in different meeting occasions of COASTAL. The report continues with general reflection and conclusions (section 4) based on the difference specific MAL sections (section 5). This includes summarizing scenario analysis strategy for each MAL and whether and how this can be related to key policy frameworks of the European Green Deal, the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Agenda 2030, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of global climate change scenarios, and marine spatial plans (MSP) -if/as currently applicable for each MAL. Separate subsections within section 5 are devoted to each MAL, and present available quantitative information and describe how and to what degree different SD sub-models are quantified. Depending on the complexity of MAL-specific problem scopes and land-sea interactions identified in their causal loop diagrams (CLD), different MALs are currently at different levels with their SD modelling and its quantification. Also, availability of data and supporting model results differ for different SD sub-models in and across the MALs. Many of the SD sub-models in most of the MALs are only partially quantified and some are not yet quantified. This explains the different information levels included in the different MAL sections of this report. MALs have planned various types of scenarios to address implications of existing uncertainties for land-sea interactions. Possible scenarios for testing are mostly related to: the two European Green Deal topics "Protecting nature and biodiversity" and "From farm to fork and healthy food system"; the two SDGs 6 (Clean water and sanitation) and 13 (Climate action); some of the SSPs through relations to scenarios of 4 D07 -Knowledge Transition