We consider a dense aggregate of elastic, frictional particles isotropically compressed and next uniaxial strained at constant pressure. We show how failure can be predicted if fluctuations in the kinematics of contacting particles are introduced. We focus on the second order work and the possibility that at some stressed states it becomes negative under proper perturbations. Our analysis involves both a theoretical model and numerical simulations based upon the distinct element method (DEM). The theoretical model deals with contacting particles with incremental relative displacements that deviate from the average deformation in order to ensure their equilibrium. Because of this, the macroscopic stiffness tensor of the aggregate, that relates increments in stress with increments in strain, does not have the major symmetry. Consequently, in the hardening regime, we predict stressed states in which the second order work vanishes. The model seems transparent, and it makes clear and illustrative the role played by the fluctuations introduced in the kinematics of contacting particles in relation to the vanishing of second order work in an aggregate of compressed particles. The comparison with numerical simulations data supports the model. Graphical Abstract Statistical representation of the aggregate: conditional average.