Risk of further EHDV introduction in Europe​ - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement
Conference Poster Year : 2024

Risk of further EHDV introduction in Europe​

Abstract

Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (EHDV), transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, poses a rising risk to European livestock and agriculture. Incursions of EHDV into free areas can be triggered by wind dispersal of midges and trade of live animals. Understanding the direction and intensity of these risk pathways is crucial for identifying high-risk areas and periods. To assess the risk of EHDV introduction in Europe, we developed an innovative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model framework that integrates meteorological data, wind trajectories, vector biology, disease dynamic, and livestock trade information. Considering the EHDV-infected source area reported up to August 2024, the model predicted a risk zone of 541 million of hectares encompassing 30 European and 12 non-European countries, each with varying levels of risk. The highest risk areas are the source countries in southwestern Europe and their close neighbours, primarily due to wind pathway. Trade flow contributes to a lower, but basal risk in distant countries such as Italy, Spain, or countries outside EU continent. France, as an infected country, poses the highest risk for new incursions in Northern and Eastern Europe. The periods of highest risk corresponded to the favorable period of Culicoides activity, between June and November. Our study shed light on an extensive, yet heterogeneous EHDV risk zone, with wind dispersal of vectors being the primary risk pathway. The model's flexibility allows its application to various epidemiological scenarios and other Culicoides-borne diseases. This research aims to enhance global awareness of Culicoides-borne disease risk and inform strategic management measures.
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Dates and versions

hal-04746012 , version 1 (21-10-2024)
hal-04746012 , version 2 (05-11-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04746012 , version 2

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Amandine Bibard, Davide Martinetti, Albert Picado, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Thibaud Porphyre. Risk of further EHDV introduction in Europe​. 17. International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Nov 2024, Sydney, Australia. . ⟨hal-04746012v2⟩
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