, cours du changement climatique, s'éloignant ainsi de l'optimum d'infection. L'effet défavorable de l'augmentation de la température ne concerne pas le mois de mai à Bordeaux et à Dijon

, Quant à la durée d'humectation foliaire journalière moyenne, elle diminue d'une période climatique à l'autre à Bordeaux et à Dijon et ne baisse significativement que dans le futur lointain à Avignon

, A titre d'exemple, au mois de juin, la médiane de la durée d'humectation journalière passe de 1h

, Cet exemple démontre le fait que les durées d'humectation à Avignon soient faibles dès le passé proche, dans PP à 0.2 h dans FL à Avignon, de 2.5 h dans PP à 1 h dans FL à Bordeaux et de 2.5 h dans PP à 1.8 h dans PP à Dijon

, En conclusion, la baisse des durées d'humectation et l'augmentation de la température dans le couvert sont défavorables à l'efficience d'infection au cours du siècle. Cet effet est moins défavorable à Avignon, site pour lequel la baisse des durées d'humectation est moins notable

, Ainsi, à Bordeaux, site le plus pénalisé, le nombre de jours d'infection passe de 65 jours dans le PP (médiane) à 25 jours dans le FL (médiane). Or, même si le cycle de développement de la vigne diminue, et cela particulièrement à Avignon et à Bordeaux (Fig. 3. 22), la date pour laquelle la surface foliaire devient nulle (par sénescence naturelle et/ou maladie) reste le plus souvent postérieure au mois d'août dans le cadre du changement climatique (Fig. 3.17). La diminution du nombre de jours d'infection n'est donc pas attribuée à au raccourcissement du cycle cultural, mais plutôt aux conditions d'infection de plus en plus défavorisées par la baisse de la durée, Le nombre de jours d'infection entre mai et août diminue de façon significative d'une période climatique à l'autre à Bordeaux et à Dijon alors qu'il ne baisse que dans le futur lointain à Avignon (Fig. 3.21)

, Cette explication s'appuie notamment sur l'adéquation des résultats entre l'évolution de l'efficience d'infection et l'évolution du nombre de jours d'infection sur chacun des trois sites

. ?-durée-de-latence,

. La-durée-de-latence-moyenne-en-mai and . Juin, 23) baisse au cours du siècle à venir pour les trois sites, avec une tendance beaucoup plus significative à Bordeaux (p-value < 0.001 en mai et p-value < 0.01 en juin) qu'à Avignon

. La-durée-de-latence-du-mildiou-dans-mdma-mildiou-est-pilotée-par-l&apos;humidité, Or, l'humidité journalière dans le couvert diminue dans le futur lointain pour l'ensemble des sites en mai et en juin, pénalisant ainsi la latence (Fig. 3.24). L'effet de l'augmentation de la température, quant à elle, est favorable à Dijon et à Avignon dans le futur lointain, des humidités dans le couvert élevées favorisant des durées de latence courtes

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