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. Fig, Decline and recovery of alders on the monitored plots in relation with temperature of the previous winter (A and C, November to March) or previous summer (B and D Because trees were rated very early in the season, there is a one year-lag in the influence of temperature on tree crown status

. Fig, Output of the modified SIR model: predicted and observed annual decline prevalence for the construction data set (A, 16 plots from NE France) and cross-validation data set (B, 26 plots from SW France)