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Journal Articles Vaccine Year : 2006

Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic


Mathematical modelling provides useful insight into the geographic and temporal spread of pandemic influenza. It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels

Dates and versions

hal-02664427 , version 1 (31-05-2020)



Antoine Flahault, Elisabeta Vergu, Laurent Coudeville, Rebecca F. Grais. Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic. Vaccine, 2006, 24 (44-46), pp.6751-6755. ⟨10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079⟩. ⟨hal-02664427⟩
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