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Quels modèles pluie-débit globaux au pas de temps horaire ? Développements empiriques et comparaison de modèles sur un large échantillon de bassins versants

Abstract : The simulation and forecast of flows at the catchment scale is an all the more difficult modelling exercise as the response time of the catchment is short. A large number of empirical or conceptual models exist today and prove to be efficient in an operational context. Given this diversity of models, the intercomparison of various models on large samples of basins appears to be a good mean to assess their performances. However an exhaustive comparative assessment has never been carried out at the hourly time step and nothing guarantees at short time steps the validity of conclusions obtained at a daily time step. So to determine the best performing models at the hourly time step, we placed our research in an empirical framework of model development and intercomparison. We first showed the usefulness of using large samples of basins to compare the performances of rainfall-runoff models with good reliability. Then we proposed a new formulation of the Nash and Sutcliffe [1970] criterion, called C2M, better suited for such large samples. We also confirmed that the local step-by-step' optimization method we used was equally effective to identify model parameters with different levels of complexity. We assessed the performances of twenty structures of rainfall-runoff models at the hourly time-step, using a split-sample test procedure on a sample of 313 basins situated in France, the United-States, Australia, Slovenia and Spain. Two structures appeared to be the most successful. These structures (four and six free parameters respectively) are the results of empirical developments and were built by gradually complexifying or simplifying existing structures. The empirical development and intercomparison of models showed that four to six parameters are necessary to represent the rainfall-runoff transformation at the hourly time-step. The value of testing models at several time steps was also demonstrated. We proposed a new model structure with four free parameters that performs equally well at the daily and hourly time-steps. We developed a robust method to estimate model parameters at the hourly time-step, using the calibrated parameters at the daily time step. Last, we proposed strategies to account for the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall that provide significant improvements in model efficiency.
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Submitted on : Friday, May 15, 2020 - 12:10:54 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-02587642, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00019340



T. Mathevet. Quels modèles pluie-débit globaux au pas de temps horaire ? Développements empiriques et comparaison de modèles sur un large échantillon de bassins versants. Sciences de l'environnement. Doctorat spécialité Sciences de l'eau, ENGREF Paris, 2005. Français. ⟨tel-02587642⟩



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