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Détection et prise en compte d'éventuels impacts du changement climatique sur les extrêmes hydrologiques en France

Abstract : Climate change is widely considered as a reality by scientists. Nevertheless, impacts on hydrological extremes are more difficult to observe and to predict. The aim of this thesis is to answer the following questions: How to detect changes in hydro-climatic series? What are the observed changes for extreme discharges in France? How to take into account possible changes in frequency analysis? These objectives refer to both the local and the regional scales. A number of at-site tests for change have been compared by simulations, leading to the selection of the more suitable method for a given variable. At the regional scale, both field significance and regional consistence are studied. New approaches are proposed and compared with the available methods. The study of almost 200 hydrometric stations does not show global patterns of change for high flows, low flows or regime. At a smaller scale, some consistent trends are detected, but without conclusion about their cause: natural variability, watershed evolution or climate change. Lastly, frequency analysis methods are modified in order to deal with possible non-stationarity. Several statistical tools were found to be suitable for this purpose. The Bayesian approach allows incorporating the uncertainty related to stationarity. At a regional scale, non-stationary models can be dealt with thanks to MCMC methods. Finally, a first approach for dealing with intersite dependence is proposed, based on a model for dependence arising from a Gaussian copula.
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Submitted on : Friday, May 15, 2020 - 12:40:50 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-02588353, version 1
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Benjamin Renard. Détection et prise en compte d'éventuels impacts du changement climatique sur les extrêmes hydrologiques en France. Sciences de l'environnement. Thèse de doctorat, INP Grenoble, 2006. Français. ⟨tel-02588353⟩



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