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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of wildfire occurrences and sizes for projections under climate change

Résumé

Appropriate spatiotemporal modelling of wildfire activity is crucial for its prediction and risk managements. Here, we focus on wildfire risk in the Aquitaine region in the Southwest of France and its projection under climate change. We study whether wildfire risk could further increase under climate change in this specific region, which does not lie in the historical core area of wildfires in France, corresponding to the Southeast. For this purpose, we consider a marked spatiotemporal point process, a flexible model for occurrences and magnitudes of such environmental risks, where the magnitudes are defined as the burnt areas. The model is first calibrated using 14 years of past observation data and then applied for projection of climatechange impacts using simulations of numerical climate models until 2100 as new inputs. We work within the framework of a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model and we present the workflow of its implementation for a large dataset at daily resolution for 8km-pixels using the INLA-SPDE approach. The assessment of the posterior distributions show a satisfactory fit of the model for the observation period. We calculate projections by combining climate model output with posterior simulations of model parameters. Depending on climate models, smoothed projections indicate low to moderate increase of wildfire activity under climate change. However, the increase is weaker than in the historical core area, which we attribute to different weather conditions (oceanic versus Mediterranean). Besides providing a relevant case study of environmental risk modelling, this paper is also intended to provide a full workflow for implementing the Bayesian estimation of marked log-Gaussian Cox processes using the R-INLA package of the R statistical software.
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Dates et versions

hal-04084123 , version 1 (27-04-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04084123 , version 1

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Juliette Legrand, François Pimont, Jean-Luc Dupuy, Thomas Opitz. Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling of wildfire occurrences and sizes for projections under climate change: A step-by-step marked point process approach using INLA-SPDE. 2023. ⟨hal-04084123⟩
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