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SEAMLESS: D6.2.3.2: Documentation of baseline and policy scenarios for Test Case 1 (formerly D2.6.5 and D6.2.7)

Abstract : This deliverable gives a short overview about the conceptual framework behind scenarios in SEAMLESS and describes the structure of the baseline and policy scenarios for Test Case 1. This involves not only the definition of these scenarios but also the identification of the different components involved in their construction. The description of the baseline is structured upon several global and regional scenario drivers. The global drivers are incorporated into Prototype 1 and try to reflect the projection of policies affecting agriculture in 2012. They are based on previous work carried out by the CAPRI team (partially condensed in PD6.2.3). These should steer Test Case 1, since the effects of policy changes on markets are the main focus of analysis. For the adaptation of the baseline to the sample regions (Nuts 2 administrative regions including Midi Pyrenées,Flevoland, Brandenburg, Andalucía) and test case regions (Pyrzyce in Poland, Neste and Massif Central in France, and Sikasso and Koutiala in Mali) expert information has been collected and will be incorporated in Prototype 2. These regional drivers will be implemented in FSSIM and linked to the market level via EXPAMOD (changes in regional production elasticities). This is an important milestone towards the construction of a comprehensive baseline at different levels, where the local conditions are also taken into account in its design. The description of the policy scenario for Test Case 1 is only done at the global level (no regional drivers involved besides the ones referring to the Malian case) and introduces a scenario where trade for agricultural commodities is liberalised in the world according to the last European proposal of October 2005 (COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, 2005b). The main variables describing the policy scenario are built in the CAPRI model. The link from CAPRI to the regional farm type models of FSSIM is done via changes in regional prices. The baseline and policy scenarios will be further elaborated in Prototype 2, as more information will become available and the capabilities of SEAMLESS will be extended.
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02589835
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Submitted on : Friday, May 15, 2020 - 1:48:11 PM
Last modification on : Monday, October 18, 2021 - 7:20:02 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02589835, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00022979

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Isabelle Perez, Geneviève Bigot, Etienne Josien, J.P. Bousset, Edward Majewski, et al.. SEAMLESS: D6.2.3.2: Documentation of baseline and policy scenarios for Test Case 1 (formerly D2.6.5 and D6.2.7). irstea. 2006, pp.31. ⟨hal-02589835⟩

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