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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

Research and operational efforts to face the challenge of providing forecasts with uncertainties in France in 2015

Résumé

Currently, the French flood forecast network provides hourly observed stage and discharge data through the website www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. If a flood is likely to happen, these observations are completed with a vigilance warning which consists in a short text about the forecasted trend for the next 24 h ours and some quantitative forecasts if available. However, forecasts are not graphically displayed today. An improvement of the general public website is planned for late 2015, with the forecasts plotted further to the corresponding observations. The local services are used to deal with deterministic models and the national center for flood forecasting (SCHAPI) decided that forecasts should only be provided with the associated uncertainties. In order to achieve this goal, two actions were conducted: a research project to develop a scientifically sound and operational method to quantify predictive uncertainty in hydrological models and brainstorm sessions gathering flood forecast experts to define the implementation strategy as well as the specifications of the tools to visualize and communicate forecasts and uncertainties. Several relevant questions were raised during these discussions: How can we find the compromise between automatic calculation and human expertise to estimate uncertainties? How can we find the balance between sharpness, reliability and utility of the uncertainty bounds? This communication show cases how recent research results and inputs from the experts’ group were translated into a post-processing operational tool designed for a multi-hydrological/hydraulic model platform as well as the main lessons learned during this paradigm shifting process within the French flood forecast network.
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Dates et versions

hal-02601949 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

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Carina Furusho-Percot, François Bourgin, Lionel Berthet, Renaud Marty, Olivier Piotte. Research and operational efforts to face the challenge of providing forecasts with uncertainties in France in 2015. IUGG General Assembly 2015, Jun 2015, Prague, Czech Republic. ⟨hal-02601949⟩

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