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Prospective sur l'évolution de la recherche sur les poissons migrateurs amphihalins à l'horizon 2030

Abstract : Insights provided by futures analyses are becoming increasingly important for planning research activities in a rapidly changing world. Few examples exist in fisheries science. A structured methodology based on a series of facilitated workshops and consensual decisions was applied here to draw potential areas for future research on diadromous fishes circa 2030 that could be of relevance for European researchers. First, twenty drivers were identified and fell within the scope of (i) diadromous fish conservation, (ii) their place and roles in modern societies, (iii) the main features of the world of science and research, and (iv) the main characteristics of research activities on this biological group. Driver's evolvement during the past and the estimation of their potential development in the future (i.e. hypotheses) were examined. Then, the combination of drivers' hypotheses within each of the four components listed above led to micro-scenarios describing how the components could plausibly change in the next fifteen years. Finally, global scenarios were obtained by the juxtaposition of four micro-scenarios, one for each of the components. The 6 global scenarios that present possible futures for diadromous fish research were arranged in a dimensional plot, with the first axis opposing food production objectives to ecosystem preservation approaches and the second axis representing the intensity level of studies on diadromous fishes. Challenges that were identified and discussed from these global scenarios were mostly structural, intellectual and ethical, and can be useful to better inform future changes in thematic positioning, missions, boundaries, technical investments, and funding opportunities operated by laboratories or individual researchers working on diadromous fishes.
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Submitted on : Saturday, May 16, 2020 - 2:34:42 PM
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  • HAL Id : hal-02607689, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00058013



Patrick Lambert, Géraldine Lassalle, Marie-Laure Acolas, F. Bau, Gérard Castelnaud, et al.. Prospective sur l'évolution de la recherche sur les poissons migrateurs amphihalins à l'horizon 2030. irstea. 2015, pp.212. ⟨hal-02607689⟩



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