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A foresight analysis in fisheries science: The case study of migratory fish research

Abstract : Insights provided by futures analyses are becoming increasingly important for planning research activities in ecology in order to provide innovative solutions to society in the face of unprecedented environmental changes (Cook, Inayatullah, Burgman, Sutherland, & Wintle, 2014). Few applications exist in fisheries science. A rigorous methodology was applied to draw potential areas for future research on diadromous fishes circa 2030 that could be useful to a broader audience of European fisheries scientists. Diadromous fishes are species that migrate between fresh waters and the sea to complete their life cycle. First, twenty drivers were identified and fell within the scope of (i) diadromous fish conservation, (ii) their place and roles in modern societies, (iii) the main features of the world of science and research, and (iv) the main characteristics of research activities on this biological group. Past and future driver developments (i.e. retrospective analysis and hypotheses respectively) were examined. Then, the combination of drivers' hypotheses within each of the four components listed above led to micro-scenarios describing how the components could plausibly change in the next fifteen years. Finally, global scenarios were obtained by juxtaposing four micro-scenarios, one for each of the components. Challenges that were identified from these global scenarios were mostly structural, intellectual with frequent revisions of theoretical and unchallenged concepts and ethical, and can be useful to better inform future changes in priorities and focus areas, technical investments, and funding opportunities operated by laboratories or individual researchers working on diadromous fishes. Also, this case study exploring the role of foresight in guiding research, particularly the part on the methodological description, could be of relevance for researchers in general.
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Submitted on : Saturday, May 16, 2020 - 6:16:49 PM
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Patrick Lambert, Géraldine Lassalle, Marie-Laure Acolas, Frédérique Bau, Gérard Castelnaud, et al.. A foresight analysis in fisheries science: The case study of migratory fish research. Futures, Elsevier, 2019, 111, pp.90-103. ⟨10.1016/j.futures.2019.06.001⟩. ⟨hal-02609693⟩



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