Couscous is widely consumed in Algeria, but it has been associated with several outbreaks. Couscous semolina may contain heat-resistant spores of Bacillus cereus group IV. These bacteria are mesophilic and potential producers of diarrheal toxin. The present study aimed at predicting (i) the prevalence and concentration of B. cereus group IV during couscous preparation at the time of consumption, and (ii) the number of consumers exposed to 105 cfu/g or more B. cereus in Algeria, due to couscous consumed at home or during collective events. In a probabilistic exposure assessment model, couscous semolina preparation was divided into three modules (i) contamination at retail, (ii) inactivation of B. cereus during couscous steaming and (iii) growth during storage before serving. Each module was built using a combination of newly gathered data, literature studies, predictive models and expert opinions. Algeria was split into four regions: North, South, High Plateau and Kabylia. The main differences between the regions were the seasonal temperature and the consumption pattern. Annually, a total of 3000 people (0.007% total population) and 170 people (0.0004%) were estimated to be exposed to a concentration equal to or above 105 cfu/g, due to home and collective consumption, respectively. The highest exposure came from couscous semolina kept at ambient temperature, in the south of Algeria during summer. Cold storage and consumption within the first 12 h after steaming are factors which limit the exposure to B. cereus group IV in couscous.