Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming
Bing Liu
(1)
,
Pierre Martre
(2)
,
Frank Ewert
(3, 4)
,
John Porter
(5, 6, 7)
,
Andy J. Challinor
(8, 9)
,
Christoph Müller
(10)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(11)
,
Katharina Waha
(12)
,
Peter J. Thorburn
(12)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(13)
,
Mukhtar Ahmed
(14, 15)
,
Juraj Balkovic
(16, 17)
,
Bruno Basso
(18, 19)
,
Christian Biernath
(20)
,
Marco Bindi
(21)
,
Davide Cammarano
(22)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(23)
,
Benjamin Dumont
(24)
,
Mónica Espadafor
(25)
,
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
(3, 26)
,
Roberto Ferrise
(21)
,
Margarita Garcia‐vila
(25)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(27)
,
Yujing Gao
(28)
,
Heidi Horan
(12)
,
Gerrit Hoogenboom
(28, 29)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(30, 31)
,
Curtis D. Jones
(30)
,
Belay T. Kassie
(28)
,
Kurt C. Kersebaum
(4)
,
Christian Klein
(20)
,
Ann‐kristin Koehler
(8)
,
Andrea Maiorano
(2, 32)
,
Sara Minoli
(10)
,
Manuel Montesino San Martin
(6)
,
Soora Naresh Kumar
(33)
,
Claas Nendel
(4)
,
Garry J. O'Leary
(34)
,
Taru Palosuo
(35)
,
Eckart Priesack
(20)
,
Dominique Ripoche
(36)
,
Reimund P. Rotter
(37, 38)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(39)
,
Claudio Stockle
(14)
,
Thilo Streck
(27)
,
Iwan Supit
(40)
,
Fulu Tao
(35, 41)
,
Marjin van Der Velde
(42)
,
Daniel Wallach
(43)
,
Enli Wang
(44)
,
Heidi Webber
(3, 4)
,
Joost Wolf
(45)
,
Liujun Xiao
(1)
,
Zhao Zhang
(46)
,
Zhigan Zhao
(44, 47)
,
Yan Zhu
(1)
,
Senthold Asseng
(28)
1
National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production,
2 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
3 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
4 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
5 UMR SYSTEM - Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens
6 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
7 Lincoln University
8 University of Leeds
9 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
10 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
11 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
12 Agriculture and Food
13 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde]
14 Biological Systems Engineering
15 Department of Agronomy
16 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program
17 Comenius University in Bratislava
18 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing]
19 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
20 BIOP - Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
21 Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA)
22 The James Hutton Institute
23 GMO Unit
24 Université de Liège
25 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
26 Department of Crop Sciences
27 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
28 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
29 UF|IFAS - Food Systems Institute [Gainesville]
30 Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park
31 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
32 EFSA - European Food Safety Authority
33 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
34 Agriculture Victoria Research
35 Institute for Natural Resources
36 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
37 Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS)
38 CBL - Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land-use [University of Göttingen]
39 Rothamsted Research
40 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
41 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
42 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
43 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
44 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
45 Plant Production Systems
46 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science
47 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
2 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
3 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
4 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
5 UMR SYSTEM - Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens
6 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
7 Lincoln University
8 University of Leeds
9 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
10 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
11 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
12 Agriculture and Food
13 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde]
14 Biological Systems Engineering
15 Department of Agronomy
16 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program
17 Comenius University in Bratislava
18 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [East Lansing]
19 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
20 BIOP - Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
21 Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA)
22 The James Hutton Institute
23 GMO Unit
24 Université de Liège
25 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
26 Department of Crop Sciences
27 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
28 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
29 UF|IFAS - Food Systems Institute [Gainesville]
30 Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park
31 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
32 EFSA - European Food Safety Authority
33 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
34 Agriculture Victoria Research
35 Institute for Natural Resources
36 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
37 Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS)
38 CBL - Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land-use [University of Göttingen]
39 Rothamsted Research
40 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
41 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
42 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
43 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
44 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
45 Plant Production Systems
46 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science
47 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
Bing Liu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 757516
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0222-2531
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 784208
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1555-0537
Christian Klein
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 758553
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7594-7280
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Liujun Xiao
- Fonction : Auteur
Zhao Zhang
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 776791
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3397-3549
Yan Zhu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 768149
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7342-3782
- IdRef : 120749734
Résumé
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield interannual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.