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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2017

Russian food embargo and changes in agri-food export patterns

Résumé

We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a difference-in-difference and a triple difference approach. We estimate the effects on the value of trade, the trade price of products covered by the ban, and the new trade flows generated by the ban.Our results point to an average 125 million euro loss in monthly EU28 exports to Russia due to the ban, with Lithuania, Poland, and Germany bearing the largest losses in absolute terms. Two-thirds of the number of export flows of banned products from a EU country to Russia ended after the introduction of the embargo. EU products banned from the Russian market were sold elsewhere at lower prices. The reorientation of EU exports to other markets translating into selling larger amounts to old trade partners, as well as in accessing new markets. Among new markets, more remote and smaller than traditional partners, EU preferred exporting to nearby and larger countries, and to intra-EU partners. Similarly, the embargo caused an important decrease in Russian imports, but not significant changes in the price of imported goods and at the extensive margin. The withdrawal of banned food products from the Russian market led to important gains for Asian and Latin American suppliers.
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Dates et versions

hal-02785147 , version 1 (04-06-2020)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-02785147 , version 1
  • PRODINRA : 416129

Citer

Angela Cheptea, Carl Gaigné. Russian food embargo and changes in agri-food export patterns. 3. Workshop MAD "Macro/microeconomics of Agriculture and Development", Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques (PSE). FRA.; Société Française d'Economie Rurale (SFER). FRA.; Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII). FRA.; Université de Reims Champagne Ardenne (URCA). FRA.; Université de Reims Champagne Ardenne (URCA). Reims, FRA. Université de Reims Champagne Ardenne (URCA), FRA., Nov 2017, Paris, France. 48 p. ⟨hal-02785147⟩

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