Closed-form Bayesian inference of graphical model structures by averaging over trees

Abstract : We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in a Bayesian framework. To avoid convergence issues and highly demanding Monte Carlo sampling, we focus on exact inference. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with closed-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. To this aim, we restrict the set of considered graphs to mixtures of spanning trees. We investigate under which conditions on the priors - on both tree structures and parameters - closed-form Bayesian inference can be achieved. Under these conditions, we derive a fast an exact algorithm to compute the posterior probability for an edge to belong to the tree model using an algebraic result called the Matrix-Tree theorem. We show that the assumption we have made does not prevent our approach to perform well on synthetic and flow cytometry data.