Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Environmental Research Letters Année : 2021

Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil

Résumé

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Nóia-Júnior-ERL-2021-CC-BY.pdf (1.18 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03386164 , version 1 (19-10-2021)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Rogério de Souza Nóia Júnior, Pierre Martre, Robert Finger, Marijn van Der Velde, Tamara Ben-Ari, et al.. Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil. Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10), pp.104025. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac26f3⟩. ⟨hal-03386164⟩
101 Consultations
67 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More