Consequences of climate change on flax fiber in Normandy by 2100: prospective bioclimatic simulation based on data from the ALADIN-Climate and WRF regional models
Résumé
Normandy is the world's leading producer of flax fiber (Linum usitatissimu L.), which is mainly exported to China for textile manufacturing. Flax is a plant that is cultivated in spring and that grows in an oceanic climate with regular watering and limited thermal excesses. This article aims at projecting the impact of climate change on the phenology of this plant when subjected to climatic hazards that may occur during its development. These projections use two regional climate models (ALADIN-Climate and WRF) based on the two scenarios generated by the latest IPPC report-intergovernmental panel on climate change-(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The rise in temperatures would result in a time-cycle reduction. Consequently, flax would not be exposed to the early summer water shortage. However, thermal conditions could be unfavorable, especially due to the increased frequency of heat days. Flax is also exposed to the risk of lodging during heavy rainfall episodes; however, the results are somehow contrasted between the two climate models used. This research demonstrates the interest of multidisciplinary impact studies so as to anticipate the consequences of climate change on agricultural crops.