Needed global wheat stock and crop management in response to the war in Ukraine - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Global Food Security Year : 2022

Needed global wheat stock and crop management in response to the war in Ukraine

(1) , (2, 3) , (2, 4) , (5) , (6) , (7) , (8)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Abstract

The war in Ukraine threatened to block 9% of global wheat exports, driving wheat prices to unprecedented heights. We advocate, that in the short term, compensating for such an export shortage will require a coordinated release of wheat stocks, while if the export block persists, other export countries will need to fill the gap by increasing wheat yields or by expanding wheat cropping areas by 8% in aggregate. We estimate that a production increase would require an extra half a million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, yet fertilizer prices are at record levels, driven by rising energy prices. Year-to-year variability plus more frequent climate change-induced crop failures could additionally reduce exports by another 5 to 7 million tons in any given year, further stressing global markets. Without stabilizing wheat supplies through judicious management of stocks and continuing yield im-provements, food and national security are at risk across many nations in the world.
Not file

Dates and versions

hal-03946778 , version 1 (19-01-2023)

Identifiers

Cite

Rogério de S. Nóia Júnior, Frank Ewert, Heidi Webber, Pierre Martre, Thomas Hertel, et al.. Needed global wheat stock and crop management in response to the war in Ukraine. Global Food Security, 2022, 35, pp.100662. ⟨10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100662⟩. ⟨hal-03946778⟩
0 View
0 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More