Assessment of resource uses with dynamic stock models: ADP as a marginal approach from Hubbert peak theory
Abstract
In LCIA, the resource issue is still debated and remains the least consensual area of concern. The currently popular assessment models for resource depletion are based on “heuristic” considerations. This presentation deals with the use of a stock dynamic model to address the resource depletion by marginal approach. Based on empirical data simulating the evolution of the exploitation rate, stock dynamics models have been proposed in the literature. It is thus possible to define a mathematical relationship linking the human intervention (the resource extraction) to the impact (the stock depletion). The partial derivative is then used expressing the marginal change and determining the Characterization factors (CFs).
This approach was used on fish stocks, and the similarities of the result with the Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) proposed by Guinée and Heijungs in 1995 lead us to look at the parallel we can draw. The fish population dynamics model is based on the very common logistic function. This is also the relation used in the Hubbert peak theory. We use the shape of the model to describe the current depleted resource fraction. This fraction equals to zero for a never exploited resource and tends towards one with the depletion. The use of partial derivative therefore makes it possible to define the CF of the resource depletion on the basis of the Hubbert theory.
The difference between ADP and Hubbert-based CFs lies only in the constant part of the equations with a fixed (antimony-based) unit conversion factor for ADP and a resource-specific parameter for Hubbert-based CFs. We show here that the original ADP is a very good estimator for the CF derived as a marginal depletion characterization factor from the Hubbert curve with an high correlation (r=0.99 with p-value ≪0.001)
With ADP being seen as a marginal approach of the resource de-accumulation, the next step is an assessment of more complex models, combining the extraction and the recycling dynamics. The resulting balance represents the dissipation of the resource. The definition of CFs addressing this stock has to be done with a specific attention on the dynamics. This could contribute to a more consensual pathway for the resource area of concern.
Domains
Environmental SciencesOrigin | Files produced by the author(s) |
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