Agrimonde-Terra foresight study on‘Land use and food security in 2050’. Abstract
Résumé
Overview After the first Agrimonde foresight study published in 2011 on 'World food security in 2050', the CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050'. The subject is particularly important because of uncertainties about the planet's capacity to feed a growing population (set to reach 9.7 billion in 2050) in a context of climate change and ongoing debates regarding land use change trajectories. What are the main drivers of land use changes and how do they interact and influence food and nutrition security? How will the agricultural land area change over the next 40 years, globally and regionally? What tensions will there be between food and nutrition security and climate change mitigation in 2050? The study seeks to answer these questions, highlighting levers that could modify ongoing land use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. The approach provides decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers with a tool for dialogue. Method Researchers firstly analyzed the long-term dynamics of the land use and food security system, with a focus on the five dimensions of land use (agronomic potential, access to land, degree of intensity of land use, distribution of land between different uses and services provided by land). This analysis allowed us to select key drivers of land use change. By identifying a range of variables influencing each driver and its dynamics, hypotheses on how each driver might evolve in 2050 were then produced. Secondly, five contrasted scenarios were built by combining one or several hypotheses per driver. Each scenario describes a situation of land use and food security in 2050 and has been translated into a narrative. Thirdly, the impacts of the scenarios in terms of land use, agricultural production and trade in the 14 world regions and globally have been assessed through quantitative simulations using the biomass balance model GlobAgri-AgT. The five scenarios and their outcomes were then appreciated both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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