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Journal Articles Global Change Biology Year : 2022

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Jian‐guo Huang
  • Function : Author
Yaling Zhang
Minhuang Wang
  • Function : Author
Xiaohan Yu
  • Function : Author
Annie Deslauriers
  • Function : Author
Patrick Fonti
Eryuan Liang
Harri Mäkinen
  • Function : Author
Walter Oberhuber
  • Function : Author
Cyrille Rathgeber
Roberto Tognetti
  • Function : Author
Václav Treml
Bao Yang
Lihong Zhai
  • Function : Author
Jiao‐lin Zhang
Serena Antonucci
  • Function : Author
Yves Bergeron
  • Function : Author
Jesus Julio Camarero
Filipe Campelo
Katarina Čufar
  • Function : Author
Henri Cuny
  • Function : Author
Martin de Luis
  • Function : Author
Marek Fajstavr
  • Function : Author
Alessio Giovannelli
  • Function : Author
Jožica Gričar
  • Function : Author
Andreas Gruber
  • Function : Author
Vladimír Gryc
  • Function : Author
Aylin Güney
  • Function : Author
Tuula Jyske
  • Function : Author
Jakub Kašpar
  • Function : Author
Gregory King
  • Function : Author
Cornelia Krause
  • Function : Author
Audrey Lemay
  • Function : Author
Feng Liu
  • Function : Author
Fabio Lombardi
  • Function : Author
Edurne Martinez del Castillo
  • Function : Author
Hubert Morin
  • Function : Author
Cristina Nabais
  • Function : Author
Pekka Nöjd
  • Function : Author
Richard Peters
  • Function : Author
Peter Prislan
  • Function : Author
Antonio Saracino
  • Function : Author
Vladimir Shishov
  • Function : Author
Irene Swidrak
  • Function : Author
Hanuš Vavrčík
  • Function : Author
Joana Vieira
  • Function : Author
Qiao Zeng
  • Function : Author
Sergio Rossi
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio‐temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell‐wall‐thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed‐effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth‐System‐Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate‐carbon feedbacks.

Dates and versions

hal-04321804 , version 1 (04-12-2023)

Identifiers

Cite

Jian‐guo Huang, Yaling Zhang, Minhuang Wang, Xiaohan Yu, Annie Deslauriers, et al.. A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers. Global Change Biology, 2022, 29 (6), pp.1606-1617. ⟨10.1111/gcb.16543⟩. ⟨hal-04321804⟩
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